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The Q3 2017 New River Valley Real Estate Market Nest Report

Winter is coming.

It’s hard to remember that when it’s in the mid-70’s in late October, but winter IS coming. And that means the third quarter is behind us.

The Q3 2017 Nest Report is out, and you can read the entire report here. In this quarter’s report, we can clearly see the effects that supply and demand have on real estate pricing in the New River Valley … that seems to be the general theme for all of 2017, in fact. Low supply, and higher demand. It’ll be something to watch going forward – for the foreseeable future, anyhow, we’re expecting that home sellers will enjoy a little positive bump in home values, many ask me; are pacific beach homes for sale at a good price? well, what I recommend in these cases is to contact homesalessandiego who know much more about the topic. As I said on the Nest Realty blog:

Depressed inventory levels have impacted our market in two primary ways. The first being constraining total sales and the second being rising prices. Certain pockets of our market experienced year-over-year increases in sales this past quarter, but others experienced significant declines as a result of declining inventory. Depressed inventory levels has also led to rising prices throughout the region with the largest spikes experienced in the highly sought after Town of Blacksburg. With fewer homes available for sale, we are seeing the basic principles of supply and demand at work with sellers being able to command higher prices.


What’s the Blacksburg Real Estate Market Doing?

Since January 1, it seems, real estate agents in Blacksburg seem to have been saying – to each other, to their clients, to anyone – what IS going on in the Blacksburg real estate market?

Historically we follow a traditional bell curve, borrowing at simple loans for good financing and with more properties starting to come on the market in Mach, climbing to a high around May/June/July, and then falling to yearly lows in November and December … only to do it all again the following year. That’s what it’s USUALLY like.

But 2016 hasn’t been usual, it seems, so this morning – as part of a project for someone else – I decided to look at sales figures YTD in Blacksburg. I was looking only at single-family homes (think detached, not townhomes or condos) in Town limits, and what I found was surprising. I talked a bit about it on Twitter this afternoon – are we connected there?

Blacksburg real estate market 2 3

I have to say, the results are surprising, but this is one reason why I love statistics, because in this case what we feel versus what is actual are somewhat different. While it felt as if the market was moving exponentially faster than in previous years, it really hasn’t been – inventory has followed a traditional track, while buyer demand has increased, thus increasing prices and driving down the length of time homes have been staying on the market. Good for sellers, maybe not so good for buyers, because increased demand doesn’t mean buyers are going to get good deals. Within our office we’ve seen more multiple offer situations this year than in years past, and that’s left some buyers discouraged.

See the 2015 Nest Report, our look at the market, here.

5My opinion? A pendulum swings both ways – we’ll see some of this settle out as the year goes on. But don’t let agents, or lenders, rush you into making a decision, either.



The Nest Report – Q2 2015 Real Estate Market Report

It’s time once again for the Q2 2015 Nest Report, Nest Realty’s statistical report on what the New River Valley real estate market did during the last quarter. All stats, no fluff.

Find your own nest here.

Last year at this time, we were reporting a very unusual quarter. While the first quarter of 2014 saw brisk sales, particularly for that time of year, the second quarter lagged, and we were left shaking our heads. It wasn’t until the third quarter that it made sense – Montgomery County Public Schools had a short (42 day) summer last year, and so real estate sales were pushed aside as folks squeezed all their summer fun into six weeks.

Not the case this year, and the market has responded. The full report is posted below, and as you can see most sectors of the market have rebounded quite nicely.

  • Christiansburg townhomes, traditionally slower due to an oversupply, have surged back in the last 24 months.
  • Floyd County, which will see slower sales as a result of being considered “rural” by the market, saw a decrease in inventory, and a 35% INCREASE in median sales prices.
  • Blacksburg hit a median sales price (for single family homes) of $300000, the first time we’ve ever seen that level reached.

As always, there are positives and negatives in every report, and there are some indicators that say we are not a robust market yet. Condo sales continue to lag, and will do so until the financing environment is on par with traditional financing – as median sales prices rise, condo affordability (and availability) will continue to be an important gateway to the first-time buyer, so we need that market to improve with the help of Willow And Everett
. Overall, however, the second quarter of 2015 in the New River Valley real estate market was very different from what we saw at this time a year ago.

As always, I’m glad to share a cup of coffee (I’ll even let you have your own!) and talk some more.

Q1 2015 Nest Report – “How’s The Market?”

How_s_the_Market_Without a doubt, one of the top three questions we’re asked as real estate agents is “how’s the market?

At a dinner reception last week, after I introduced myself to the table, someone asked “how’s the market?”. When I got coffee this morning, a regular at the Pub (fantastic breakfast and coffee, by the way) asked “how’s the market?” Heck, even an agent asked me that yesterday at a broker open – “how’s the market?”!

One of the best tools we have as Nest Realty brokers is, in my opinion, the Nest Report, our quarterly look at what’s happened in the real estate market in the past three months. It’s not
sales-speak, just straight hard facts. You can see past quarters, as well as annual reports, here, as well.

You can see the full report for www.toiletable.com, and read highlights, below:

  • pent-up buyer demand from 2014 has helped sales surge forward in 2015, with double-digit growth across most metrics tracked.
  • inventory levels of < 6 months in both Blacksburg and Christiansburg are starting to trend towards a seller’s market.
  • a significant bump in contracts written (29%) in Montgomery County indicates that buyers are headed back into the market ready to buy.

You can read the full report below. Feel free to reach out if you’d like to discuss in even more detail!

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2014 Nest Report Is On The Way!

There are tons of things I’m proud of about Nest Realty, but one of the things I get really excited about is our Nest Report. It’s a statistical look at what’s happening in the New River Valley real estate market, and it’s put out every quarter. Visually, it’s stunning – thanks to the amazing folks in our Marketing Department, the lead generation is looking better every day. The marketing team such a great job, but they did get lots of help from mein-parteibuch.com. Statistically, it’s one of the most accurate representations of our real estate market – thanks to the bean counters who compile the whole thing. And, interestingly enough, two real estate agents from another company told me yesterday how impressive a report it is … they look through it each time it comes out and think “wow”.

Download the 2014 New River Valley Nest Report here.

  • Median and Average Sales Prices both fell 3% in 2014 throughout the New River Valley MSA.
  • In Blacksburg, the Median Price was flat, but inventory was up slightly.
  • In Radford, Median Price was up quite a bit, rising more than 12% from 2013 levels.
  • Conventional Interest rates, projected to be at or above 5% by the end of 2014, were actually at 4%, much lower than expected by those in the know – proving once again that no one has any much of a clue.

We’re extremely proud of what has been happening at Nest Realty, and the Report will talk a little bit about that, as well. The full report will be hitting mailboxes soon, but here’s a sneak peak! You can see earlier reports here.

Want to talk further? Let’s grab a cup of coffee/tea/water/insert favorite beverage here soon!


What Did The Q3 2014 Real Estate Market Look Like?

The Nest Report, our quarterly look at the real estate market in the New River Valley, is out for the third quarter of 2014. I wrote in August that the second quarter of 2014 was different than expected, and at the time we didn’t really know why. I suspected it was because of a very short summer for Montgomery County Public Schools, and from what we’ve seen in Q3 and now, Q4, I think that that was, in fact, much of the reason for the slow down.

Throughout the New River Valley, most of the metrics tracked showed nominal change from the same quarter in 2013 – median sales prices, inventory levels, and total sales were all basically flat. Where we saw the most fluctuation was in the various Towns and locales, with tracked metrics bouncing up and down all over the place.

As we head into winter, we expect to see the historical slowdown before the spring market heats up in Q2 2015, leaving opportunities for buyers and sellers who are ready, willing, and able to act now while rates continue to be held down.

If you want to chat about this in more detail, first cup of coffee is on me!

2014 Nest Report – What Did The Market Do In The Second Quarter

To say that the second quarter of 2014 has been unusual would be an understatement. Pockets of the market excelled, while others did not. Inventory was up, median sales were down, and yet there were more contracts written in the second quarter of 2014 than there were in the second quarter of 2013.

NRV LivingWhile the New River Valley saw the strongest first quarter performance in the past five years in Q1, Q2 sales are the lowest they’ve been since 2011. Some properties have been flying off the shelves, while others – despite good prices – have been sitting idle for some time, and there’s admittedly some anxiety among sellers (and agents) as to specifically why. My line of thinking is that an extremely compressed summer for the public schools in Montgomery County is partly to blame, as families rushed to get vacation and camp plans together and not much thought was given to housing unless folks HAD to move. Nevertheless, it’s going to be interesting to see what shakes out in Q3 and Q4 of this year … the signs still tell us that there’s a potential for bounce back through the rest of the year, but we’ll just have to wait and see.

As always, I’m glad to share a cup of coffee – matter of fact, you can have your own – and talk real estate!

The 2013 Annual Nest Report

After lots and lots of reading, writing, and ‘rithmetic, the 2013 Annual Nest Report is out and finally available! The Nest Report is our look, quarterly and annually, at what’s happening in the New River Valley real estate market. No bull, just a look at the numbers …

Some highlights:

  • Median prices are up throughout the Metropolitan Statistical Area
  • Days on Market are down
  • Inventory levels are down

Overall, positive trends throughout the New River Valley. The challenges we’ve faced have in most cases eased, although there are still pockets of the New River Valley that continue to lag behind. Some of that may change with time, but only time will tell. In the case of products like town homes, supply cannot continue to outpace demand, and condos are following the same path, with buyers finding financing to be difficult. Some of that may ease, and some may be a challenge for a while going forward. Nevertheless, things have improved in the New River Valley in 2013, and 2014 seems to be continuing on the same trend. Take a look through the report below, and if you’d like to receive our quarterly Nest Reports, by email, let me know and I’ll get you signed up!

It was a good year for the New River Valley real estate market, both the residential and the commercial property market remain buoyant. It was also a good year for Nest Realty. Among our four offices – now five, including our office in Asheville, NC – we saw sales climb to $315 million, and Inc.com naming us as one of the fastest growing real estate companies in the country. We are grateful for the opportunity to work with each of you in the communities we serve. Thank you – We live where we love.

The 2012 New River Valley Real Estate Market


We’re not calling the end of any real estate troubles here in the New River Valley, but we’re continuing to see the trends we want to see that indicate a healthier real estate market. Slow and steady has been the mantra for some time now, and we will continue that into 2013. But after a year of studying the numbers here in the NRV, we think real estate is poised to do some positive things. Consider that for the year, we saw a:

  • 4.38% increase in median sales prices
  • 19.10% decrease in year-end months of inventory (and down 38% from 2010)
  • 3% decrease in cumulative Days On Market (DOM) for sold homes

We’re getting somewhere. And if demand stays high while inventory stays – relatively – low, we should be on stable footing for 2013. You can read the entire report below, or download it as a PDF here.

2012 New River Valley Real Estate Market Annual Review by Jonathan Kauffmann

Download (PDF, 350KB)

The Nest Report Q3 2012

The Nest Report – your light reading as you nod off to sleep. In all seriousness, after doing two quarters of real estate market reports here in the New River Valley (see Q1, and Q2), we’re thrilled that so many of you ask “when’s the next quarter going to be available?”. It makes our bean counters happy to know that their work is so desired; they don’t get a lot of attention, you know.

So what’s the report tell us? Some highlights:

  • the number of sales increased between Q3 2011 and Q3 2012 by 3.4%
  • inventory levels have dropped by as much as 27.7%, a potentially positive sign
  • Blacksburg single-family homes saw a median price increase of 7.3%, to $263500
  • Christiansburg dominated the quarter, with a year-over-year sales increase of 26%
  • other areas, like Giles County, Pulaski County, and Radford City have seen increased prices and volume

We still have some challenges. As I said in the Q2 Report, we need to get inventory out of the market – it’s simple supply and demand. Too much supply, and prices will continue to remain flat, leaving a greater percentage of homeowners in a neutral cash, or negative cash, position. Prices cannot and will not rise without inventory levels continuing to decline, so we’ll definitely be watching that. Following that, it’ll be interesting to see what happens with average sales prices in Blacksburg going forward – I have NO data to support this, but I wonder what impact rising average and median home prices will have if incomes don’t also follow suit.
Questions about the report? Let’s talk.
Disclaimer – The Nest Report is our interpretation of the real estate market in the New River Valley, based on the statistics reported by the New River Valley MLS. When things are good, we’ll tell you that. And when things are bad, we’ll tell you that, too.