The Recession Ends in 2009?

That’s what 45 economists are saying, in a poll conducted by the National Association for Business Economics, and reported on NPR.

A survey of 45 top economists concludes that the recession will probably end by the second half of this year. But the poll from the National Association of Business Economics also suggests the economy will stay soft and the labor market won’t improve until next year.

Those surveyed believe the U.S. economy is showing signs of stabilizing.

Take it Salt Shakerwith a grain of salt, I think.  The article reports (read or listen here) that these
economists expect the economy to grow by 1.2% in the second half of 2009, while unemployment climbs to 9.8% in the same time frame.  I didn’t do so hot in economics in college (or many other subjects, for that matter), but that seems to be too wide a margin to consider the recession slowing.  On the other hand, I didn’t do so hot in economics so what do I know?

I’m cautious, but optimistic.  I am certain the first-time buyer credit has helped with housing numbers, and the real estate market in the New River Valley continues to be stable.  The clouds are still there, however, so don’t break out the champagne just yet.

H/t to Scott Brunner and VAR for the post.

Thanks for the picture.

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