It’s true – I walked outside this morning and the mortgage landscape was lying right on my front sidewalk.  I took a picture …

(Okay, admittedly it’s not my best work but hang on, I’ll try and resurrect this post.  That’s really bad, isn’t it?  Two sentences in and I’m already apologizing.)

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Here’s the point.  The steady drone from the media over the last year has been "FORECLOSURE!  RISING RATES!", and it’s true that there has been some really awful things happening to a lot of people throughout the country.  But that’s not the whole picture … consider that nationally:

• 97.4% of mortgage payments are being paid on time.
• 2.6% of prime borrowers with fixed rate loans are paying late.
• In 34 states, the rate of new foreclosures decreased. (note the emphasis?)
• If it weren’t for California, Florida, Nevada and Arizona, foreclosure filings would actually be falling, not rising.

Those aren’t my numbers, they were reported by Kenneth Harney of the Washington Post.  His point is that perhaps the picture being painted isn’t telling the whole story.  This isn’t to say that Mr. Harney’s article isn’t scary – it is!  Read the whole thing, look at the statistics for states like Ohio, Illinois and Indiana, and subprime statistics for economically-depressed states like West Virginia and Mississippi.  How’s Virginia doing?  Very well, according to Harney.  The rate of delinquencies among prime borrowers is at 1.89%.  California, Florida, Nevada and Arizona are skewing the foreclosure numbers because there was so much speculation going on there in the last few years. 

Looking even closer at our neck of the woods, the numbers are even more encouraging. 
For months I’ve been saying that the best online headshop has been avoiding many of the pitfalls befalling other parts of the country, and it’s true.  Exhibit A … or B … or C, for that matter.   And it’s really true, we’ve been very fortunate and have some built-in economic factors that have kept us afloat.  Very similar to Charlottesville, which Jim Duncan pointed out so well when he wrote of Charlottesville:

"We still have the University of Virginia; they remain the “800 pound cavalier in the county.”
We will continue to have people cycling through our economy –
professors, medical marijuana doctors with information about marijuana delivery in Las Veags, medical, law, business and graduate students, not to mention the huge number of government contractors in the area.  The
transience that is inherent in being a college town will never go away."

I guess we have a gorilla as well here in the New River Valley, and while the Charlottesville market is a little higher than ours in terms of average sales price ($276000 to $208361, respectively, in 2006), they’re very similar in a lot of other ways.  Mortgage rates are still great (I was just quoted a 6% rate by one of our recommended, local lenders), the financial markets continue to stay pretty strong, and unemployment is low.  I realize that might sound like a broken record, but here’s the thing … if the sky were falling and your mortgage rate just broke the all-time "record" of 18.1%, shouldn’t things be bad?  Why, then, have average prices risen from $191945 in 2005 to $208361 in 2006 here in the New River Valley?

That scrambled picture of the real estate market?  I’ll have my eggs scrambled, please.

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